The Department of Meteorology and Hydrology of Myanmar issued a public notice on climate change developments on 21 May, stating that calculations indicate conditions are favourable for the possible occurrence of the El Niño phenomenon in terms of sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean near the equator. At present, Myanmar, as well as other Asian countries, is experiencing abnormal weather patterns associated with the effects of El Niño.
In general, El Niño usually occurs once every five to seven years, but in recent years it has been observed occurring once every two or three years. When the El Niño phenomenon becomes strong, it can spread globally from the South American region, leading to increasingly severe climate abnormalities.
According to measurements, calculations and studies conducted by international meteorological agencies, mathematical model forecasts indicate that weak El Niño conditions may begin to develop from June 2026 and could strengthen into a strong El Niño condition by the end of 2026. Although El Niño is a phenomenon that normally occurs in the Pacific Ocean, its impacts generally include abnormal rainfall patterns, higher daytime temperatures, irregular storm occurrences, drought and water shortages, as well as other extreme weather events.
The El Niño event that occurred during 1997-1998 was the most severe and intense on record, causing widespread impacts across the world. The total value of losses and damages caused by the event amounted to US$34 billion. There were 24,000 deaths, 533,000 injuries, six million displaced persons, a total of 111 million people affected, and 56 million acres of land impacted. In Myanmar, 18 major cities recorded new highest temperature records, while 15 major cities recorded new lowest rainfall records.
The strong El Niño that occurred during 2015-2016 also brought record-breaking heat and drought conditions. During 2016, record wildfires, diseases directly related to extreme heat and dryness, as well as shortages and difficulties in obtaining drinking water, were experienced. In general, there may be risks of extreme heat, wildfires, severe drought, and shortages of drinking water; therefore, preparations and preventive measures should be made in advance.
Therefore, as El Niño conditions have already begun to emerge in 2026, extreme weather events such as abnormal rainfall patterns, higher daytime temperatures, irregular storm occurrences, drought, and water shortages may occur as a result. Accordingly, all relevant organizations and the public are urged to remain alert to climate change and take special measures for advance preparedness and necessary precautionary actions.