THE International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday nudged its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1 per cent, up 0.1 percentage point from its July projection, as economies lifted by the artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom offset those hurt by the Middle East conflict.
In its latest World Economic Outlook, titled “Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices,” the IMF projected global growth slowing from 3.5 per cent in 2025 to 3.1 per cent in 2026 before recovering to 3.4 per cent in 2027. The 2027 figure is unchanged from the July forecast and 0.2 percentage points higher than the April forecast.
The IMF said growth is becoming more concentrated. Just 32 economies now account for 95 per cent of global growth, down from 54 in April. Roughly 47 per cent of economies had their forecasts downgraded.
The fund described the world economy as neither simply slowing nor accelerating but having growth reallocated according to each country’s exposure to the war-driven energy shock and to AI-related demand.
The strongest performers combine limited energy vulnerability with deep ties to the AI hardware supply chain. By contrast, energy importers with little connection to the technology cycle, including many low-income countries, face the hardest mix of higher import bills, weaker currencies, and falling real incomes.
Xinhua
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