TEN days post-initial US and Israeli strikes on Iran, oil prices have dipped from $100+/barrel surges caused by Tehran’s military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for 20 per cent of world supply — contrasting starkly with 1973’s political OPEC Arab embargo against pro-Israel Western states during the Yom Kippur War.
Mechanics diverge fundamentally: 1973 refused production politically; 2026 blocks physical transit. Gulf majors Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Kuwait possess surge capacity yet remain Hormuz-trapped, lacking ample bypass routes or storage, forcing output cuts. Rystad Energy’s Jorge Leon flags potential major energy crisis if prolonged, but IRIS expert Francis Perrin’s analysis rules out 1973’s fourfold spike as improbable given the logistical — not diplomatic —nature. Iran leverages high prices to strain President Trump’s Republicans before November midterms; Trump rebutted Monday, projecting quick war resolution while easing select Russian oil sanctions — already permitting India’s temporary imports — to steady markets.
Post-1973 reforms arm OECD with IEA-managed strategic reserves equaling three months’ imports, poised to quench speculation and gaps from the blockade — effective only briefly, Perrin cautions.
AFP
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