By Dr Kyaw (Meteorology School)
The Earth’s climate system is a complex structure formed by intricate interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, ice sheets (cryosphere), and the biosphere. When people hear the term “Climate Change,” they often immediately think of global warming. In reality, climate change is a natural process of transformation. For instance, just as the annual cycle transitions through summer, rainy, and winter seasons, there are also planetary-scale climate cycles that shift over hundreds of thousands of years. Simply put, this natural cycle is currently in a phase transitioning from an ice age towards a warmer climate. In climate science, this type of change is referred to as Natural Climate Change.
How, then, did the concept of human-induced climate change arise? This finding is also scientifically valid. Essentially, while the climate changes naturally at a slow pace, human activities are causing it to warm at an accelerated rate. This human-caused climate change is termed Anthropogenic Climate Change. As humans emit increasing amounts of greenhouse gases, the rate of global temperature rise accelerates, pushing regional climates and weather patterns from a predictable state to an unpredictable one.
What are greenhouse gases? The gases in Earth’s atmosphere, including the oxygen we breathe, can be divided into two main groups. The first group, which makes up the largest percentage, includes Nitrogen (N2) at about 78 per cent, Oxygen (O2) at about 21 per cent, and Argon (Ar) at about 0.9 per cent. While these gases are crucial for life andnatural chemical processes, they have a minimal greenhouse effect.
Furthermore, there are other types of gases present in smaller quantities that have a very significant impact on the global climate. A primary one is Carbon Dioxide (CO2), whose concentration is rising due to human activities like fossil fuel combustion (eg, coal, gasoline), industrial expansion, and deforestation. Another is Methane (CH4), which is released from agriculture, livestock farming, and landfill sites (especially those containing plastic waste). Methane has a much higher heat-trapping capacity than CO2. Another greenhouse gas, Nitrous Oxide (N2O), is also seeing increased emissions due to the excessive use of chemical agricultural inputs (eg, fertilizers and other chemical additives) on farmlands.
Additionally, the Ozone Layer (O3), which protects humans and animals from harmful ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the sun, exists in the upper atmosphere. While it shields us from UV rays, if ozone descends to the lower atmosphere, it can act as a potent greenhouse gas. Another gas present in the atmosphere is industrial Fluorinated gases (F-gases), which have a much higher global warming potential than CO2 and can persist in the atmosphere for centuries. Finally, Water Vapour (H2O) is also a greenhouse gas. As the most abundant greenhouse gas, it naturally transitions between vapour and cloud form based on atmospheric temperature and has a very high heat-trapping capacity.
Therefore, atmospheric gases can be divided into those that are abundant (N2, O2, Ar) and greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, O2, F-gases, H2O). The human-driven increase in CO2, CH4, N2O, and F-gases is the primary cause of the abnormally rapid rise in global temperatures, constituting the main drivers of anthropogenic climate change.
It is widely understood that the circulation of the atmosphere and oceans, and the existence of forests, are interlinked to form the global climate system. Within this system, certain components are particularly critical for climate change processes, acting as tipping points. Analogous to how the heart and brain are vital organs in the human body, despite all parts being important, scientists define these crucial components of the climate system as Climate Tipping Points. These points can be specific regions or circulation systems (e.g., ocean currents). While they normally exist in a stable state, they play a powerful role in climate change processes. If pushed beyond a certain threshold — like tilting a chair too far back until it falls over — these systems may not easily return to their original state and can instead accelerate climate change.
Such changes can impact not only their physical ecosystems but also human societies, agriculture, and other dependent ecosystems. The figure included with the article shows the most critical climate tipping points identified by scientists, including the author. These include polar ice sheets, monsoon systems, ocean circulation patterns, tropical rainforests, coral reefs, and glaciers. Each component plays a key role in maintaining global climate stability, and the failure of any one can accelerate global warming, hence their designation as tipping points.
One of the most important types of tipping points involves the Earth’s frozen components, the cryosphere. For example, the Greenland Ice Sheet stores vast amounts of fresh water in its dense ice. Rising global temperatures are causing this ice sheet to melt faster, and scientists predict this melt could cause global sea levels to rise by meters in the coming centuries. Similarly, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the East Antarctic Ice Sheet have limited resilience to rising temperatures. If the ice shelves buttressing these massive sheets melt and collapse, ice could flow rapidly into the ocean, significantly raising sea levels.
Likewise, Arctic Sea Ice is melting rapidly due to rising global temperatures. Unlike the melting of land ice in Greenland and Antarctica, the melting of sea ice does not directly raise sea levels. However, the loss of this reflective white ice reduces the Earth’s albedo (the reflection of solar radiation back into space), causing the Earth’s surface to absorb more solar energy and leading to even faster warming.
Furthermore, permafrost regions like the Yedoma permafrost in Siberia are thawing rapidly. This ice-rich soil contains vast amounts of organic carbon. When it thaws, microbes decompose organic matter, releasing the potent greenhouse gases methane and carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, further amplifying warming. Additionally, Methane Clathrates (frozen methane deposits on ocean floors) could become unstable as oceans warm, potentially releasing large quantities of greenhouse gases into the water and atmosphere. The rapid change in each of these cryospheric components poses a significant risk of pushing the climate system past a point of no return, hence their status as critical tipping points.
Beyond non-living systems, the living part of the Earth — the biosphere — also represents a crucial climate tipping point. The Amazon Rainforest, often called the “lungs of the planet,” is a prime example. Trees naturally absorb CO2 and release oxygen. The Amazon maintains its own humidity and generates its own rainfall cycle through evapotranspiration and cloud formation. However, deforestation and droughts caused by heatwaves are weakening this self-sustaining ecosystem. Scientists warn that global warming could push the Amazon past a threshold where it can no longer sustain itself as a rainforest, potentially transforming it into a savanna. This shift would release billions of tonnes of stored carbon and alter global rainfall patterns.
The boreal forests stretching across Canada, Alaska, and northern Russia are also suffering from increased wildfires and dieback due to hotter summers, pests, and heatwaves. If their resilience is lost, these vast, dense forests could shift to less dense woodlands or grasslands, reducing their capacity to absorb carbon from the atmosphere.
Similarly, tropical coral reefs, often called the “rainforests of the sea,” are another biosphere tipping point. Corals thrive within a narrow temperature range, and rising sea temperatures are causing widespread coral bleaching. If the rate of reef destruction exceeds regeneration, these incredibly biodiverse ecosystems could collapse. Another vital biological component is the marine biological carbon pump, where marine organisms transport carbon from the surface to the deep ocean. This process helps regulate atmospheric CO2, but changes in ocean chemistry, temperature, and currents can weaken it, reducing the ocean’s carbon absorption capacity.
A third major category of tipping points involves circulation systems. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a critical one. This system, driven by differences in water temperature and salinity, acts like a conveyor belt, transporting warm water northward and cold water southward. The melting of Greenland’s ice, as mentioned, pours fresh water into the North Atlantic. This influx of fresh water can dilute the salinity, potentially weakening or even shutting down this circulation system. Such a change could disrupt global climate patterns, leading to harsher winters in Europe, droughts in Africa, and irregularities in Asian monsoons, as research has shown.
Furthermore, the jet stream, a powerful air current in the upper atmosphere vital for weather patterns, is being altered by Arctic warming. A weaker jet stream can lead to prolonged heatwaves or cold spells, floods or droughts, increasing the frequency of extreme weather events. Practical evidence, including the author’s research, indicates that the irregular onset, retreat, and rainfall of the Myanmar monsoon are influenced by these jet stream changes.
Another crucial tipping element is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the equatorial Pacific, which causes El Niño (warmer) and La Niña (cooler) phases. While these alternate naturally, climate change is making these oscillations more intense and frequent, leading to more severe global floods and droughts. Relatedly, the West African Monsoon, which supports millions of farmers, is also becoming unstable due to changing sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, exacerbating droughts and floods in the Sahel region. The expansion and contraction of the Sahara Desert also influence African and global climate patterns.
Most critically for our region, the Indian/Asian Summer Monsoon, the lifeblood of South Asia’s climate, is showing signs of destabilization due to global warming, leading to more frequent droughts and floods.
Climate tipping points do not change in isolation; they are interconnected. Scientists warn of tipping cascades, where one change triggers others. For example, Arctic Sea ice loss amplifies warming, accelerating permafrost thaw. Methane release from permafrost then adds more greenhouse gases, potentially disrupting monsoons and weakening ocean circulation. Similarly, a weakened AMOC could reduce rainfall over the Amazon, pushing it further toward dieback.
Among all these components, the Asian monsoon system is particularly crucial. It delivers annual monsoon rains to about a third of the world’s population, sustaining agriculture, freshwater supplies, and ecosystems across Asia. Anomalies in the monsoon, such as delayed onset or weakened intensity, directly threaten food security across Southern Asia, from Pakistan and India to Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Southern China. If the monsoon system is pushed past its tipping point by climate change, the consequences could include crop failures, water scarcity, mass migration, and political instability.
In conclusion, the Earth’s natural system contains climate tipping points — from the Greenland Ice Sheet and Arctic Sea ice to the Amazon rainforest, coral reefs, the AMOC, and global monsoons — that are difficult to reverse once crossed. Each component is vital for global climate stability, and the failure of one can trigger cascading changes in others. People must understand this. As climate change is a challenge that cannot be solved by one individual or nation alone, it is the duty of all humanity to collectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions and protect ecosystems through precise, well-implemented global policies to keep these systems within their natural bounds.
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