INDIAN oil marketing companies’ EBITDA will rise in the next financial year — 2025-26 — as demand growth remains steady and Brent crude oil prices fall — to US$70 a barrel in 2025 and USD65 a barrel in 2026, said Fitch Ratings.
EBITDA is earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation. The global rating agency expects the oil companies’ gross refining margins to hover around US$ 5 per barrel to US$ 6.8 per barrel and for marketing margins to remain healthy in 2025-26.
Brent crude is currently trading at US$ 75.76 per barrel, publicly available data showed.
The refining margins would be aided by lower crude oil prices, improving demand and slower net capacity growth.
India Oil Corporation Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited, and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited reported gross refining margins of US$ 3.7 per barrel to US$ 6.0 per barrel in the first nine months of 2024-25, compared to the unusually high levels of US$9.1 per barrel to US$12.1 per barrel in 2023-24. Fitch’s Brent price assumptions reflect the impact of OPEC+’s large spare capacity, increasing global production and moderating demand growth.
ANI
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